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February 11, 2015 / subramanyam

My Musings on the New Delhi Elections.


Arrogant BJP was taught a lesson, Swachch Bharat began in Delhi” This was the first message I received from a friend of mine this morning. He and I worked together last year to garner a few votes for the TDP-BJP combine in AP.  This friend of mine believes that BJP has a lot of head weight and the voters of Delhi have shown them their place.  Many of my friends had similar reactions and I had to sift through at least 20 -30 posts of that sort before reading some other updates on Facebook.

While many  people who affiliate themselves with NDA parties responded this way, one of the core partners of NDA ,shri

Uddhav Thackrey went on to rub salt on the wounds of BJP by saying that it was a Tsunami in Delhi and no wave can stand in front of it.  We all know what he was referring to.

Now if allies and people who affiliate themselves with the NDA are making it quite open that they are not upset (in fact relishing) with the results of New Delhi what will the sworn foes do ?   Self styled “secular intellectuals” in the media started writing essays right from the day the exit polls were announced.  Every one in the media , sorry secular media seem to have advice for Modi and BJP on what went wrong and what Modi and BJP should have done to win the election.  Many over there are over-excited with the fact that they could finally find the perfect force that can halt the Modi juggernaut.  There are articles, blog posts, debates  and programs that try to depict that the Modi wave has finally ended and there is hope for India.

In the midst of all this din, it’s tough for a BJP supporter not to be sad on a day like this.  One, you have lost an election badly and then you here all this wonderful muft advice on how the party and the nation should run.  I am a BJP supporter and the result in Delhi only makes me feel sad.

I congratulate Kejriwal and AAP for the stunning success in this election. I am trying to produce my objective analysis of what this election means for all of us in the days to come.

What does this mean to BJP ?

Well, they lost a state in which they were in power some 16 years ago.   They did spend a lot of time and energy to win it this time but probably got the worst ever result.  Not being able to win 7 MLA seats with 7 sitting MPs is indeed a big blot on the image of the party.  The party controls the center and the Delhi Municipality and still could not even manage 10% of the seats and this is going to hit the morale of the party very very badly.

The other thing would be the local leadership issue, the local leaders in BJP will start quoting Kiran Bedi’s example andBJP-Messenger-Samvad-Setu would say that the local leadership must get the precedence when it comes to leadership roles of the party. You would be hearing more voices of dissent and that would create leadership struggles in he days to come.

They have lost at least 2-4 Rajya Sabha seats due the magnitude of the loss.

However, there are a few positives too for the party.

1. They have their vote bank intact. In fact they lost the election due to the consolidation of the opposition vote. I will explain this in the next section.

2. They also got more votes than last time in as many as 50 constituencies in Delhi . Its another story that the opponents got more votes than them.

3.  They got a first hand experience of how bad the things can go for them if the Anti-BJP votes get consolidated.

4.  They also got to know on how they would be grilled even by their own allies when they don’t deliver on certain promises. (The main reason for the swelling disappointment on BJP in AP is the fact that they gave little financial assistance to AP last year. )

5. They must have got the lesson with the import of Kiran Bedi, her statement after the election sums it all.  She had the audacity to the following words. “‘I Haven’t Lost, the BJP Has, It Should Introspect'”.   Going forward BJP must remember her and this sentence before they import someone into their party.

What does this  mean to AAP ?

They have worked hard and have got the results.  I donot like the party and its ideas on economy but the way they

Congratulations to Kejriwal on the historic win

conducted the campaign was impressive and they won the election.  Now comes tough part where they have deliver on what they have promised.  While it looks tough to me, I sincerely  hope that they would succeed in fulfilling the hopes of the people who placed their faith in AAP.

What does this mean the nation ?

Some sections of the media would want us to believe that a new revolution has started in India and say that Modi wave is waning and it is going to be AAP  in the future.  Every now and then you would be seeing a AAP vs BJP or MODI Vs Kejriwal debate on many issues. Every action of both the leaders would be compared and Kejriwal would be projected as the man who can take on Modi.

Will this result get repeated in other states ?

I have my doubts , lets see the way AAP has won in this election. Here are vote shares of the three major parties in the past 2 elections.

2014 election 

BJP 33.32% Cong 24% AAP 29%

2015 election

BJP 32.30%, Cong 7.8%  AAP  54%

As you can make it out, while BJP kept it’s vote share the votes of Congress and others got transferred to AAP.  Congies did not believe that they even had an out side chance, some their leaders were announcing support to AAP, then  Owaisi, Mamta Didi, the Commies, the parties in Janata Parivar and even Shah Imam Bukhari have asked the voters to vote for AAP. See the consolidation of votes that went in AAP’s favor.  AAP gained at the expense of congress and got the blessings of all these parties to win the election.   Now, when you venture out of New Delhi each of these parties have their own interests to protect and you cannot imagine the consolidation to happen at this level.

At the best you would get a regional Satrap in every state to stop Modi and then you should believe all these people will work in unison to bring Modi down. To me, that sounds like a good pipe line dream.

To Conclude

I sincerely hope that BJP gets its lessons from this election, they stand a good chance for the upcoming elections in Bihar.   They sincerely need to acknowledge that there is a change of perception among the people about the party and that needs to be taken care of.  This result is no Tsunami to wreck the faith and belief system of the party and the future is theirs if they deliver on their promises.  It would be worth mentioning that Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and J&K  have given historical mandate to BJP and this the first reversal after 2014 Lok Sabha. It’s about taking it in the stride and moving on. As for Kejrival , one can only hope to get such a great majority.  I cannot concur with him on his economic policies and his idea of freebies. However, that does not stop me from wishing him  the best of luck and health as he takes over the reins of New Delhi.

Coming to the friends and foes of BJP who are making much ado about the win and loss in Delhi please understand that an election in New Delhi cannot be compared with the elections in other states.  By celebrating the loss of an ally you are only showing your true colors. Well, if the legal demands are not met,  agitate, break the alliance, go into the people and make sure that this message reaches them but remember you allied with that party for your votes and the mandate is a joint one for both.

Last but not the least , I donot want an early election in Bihar. We had a little too many elections in the last few months and we must have at least 10 months where the focus is on governance and governance alone.

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2 Comments

Leave a Comment
  1. tanimaraghu / Feb 17 2015 5:35 pm

    Eureka! On having rediscovered you. Why not write something about current India’s situation unemployment and slow economic growth. How will the drop is the oil prices affect India positively or negatively?

    Like

  2. subramanyam / Feb 17 2015 5:46 pm

    Hi Tanima,
    Sure I will write on soon on that. I am waiting for the budget to come up. Once we have that I will definitely write on Oil, India and economy.

    Thank you
    Regards
    Subramanyam K.V.

    Like

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