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December 25, 2012 / subramanyam

Modi’s Victory:: An Analysis …


How much ever one wants reject it and how much ever some sections of media wish to diminish and report it, Narendra Modi has returned with a resounding majority to rule Gujarat.  Narendra Modi’s decisive victory in Gujarat was long foreseen, the entire debate among the political circles and the analysts was regarding the margin of victory. Many analysts have opined and continue to opine that anything above 120 seats in the  Gujarat assembly would give Narendra Modi a ticket to New Delhi.  Now that he has won the election and won it by a handsome margin, it’s all eyes on his arrival at New Delhi now.

While the road to Delhi now looks promising for Narendara Modi , the victory in Gujarat deserves a special mention. It is the third time modi-3_660_122012095039that Modi has a mandate to rule Gujarat. While he is still behind Jyoti Basu, Narendra Modi joins Naveen Patnaik and Shiela Dixit in the 3 time chief minister club.  While Delhi and Orissa are definitely smaller than Gujarat, neither of the other 2 chief ministers had to put up with the incessant attacks from the pseudo-secular media as Narendra Modi did.  For instance, while the some sections of media launch tirade after tirade on Narendra Modi and keep questioning his secular credentials, very few of them ask questions on the deteriorating law and order situation in national capital.  Their interest in Orissa is much lesser and as Naveen Patnaik has already dropped BJP as an ally in 2009 it is very unlikely that the pseudo-secularists would ever attack him.

These vicious campaigns and the tag of pariah from the western countries made the job all the way more tough for Modi this time. Then there was dissension in the ranks as Keshubhai, the Patel strong man broke ranks with BJP and launched his own Gujarat Parivartan Party.  Then you always have the anti-incumbency factor against the ruler.  In spite of all these odds Modi has won handsomely. While he deserves praise for whatever he accomplished, it pays to know what he did to tide through all the odds.

When we look at the reasons for Modi’s victory, Gujarati asmita factor stands out. Modi has been successful in  convincing  gujaratis that the state is peaking in terms of growth.  He has been delivering on the governance plank and has been projecting that the work is being done for Gujarat and every Gujarati is a beneficiary of the collective hard work done.  For example in the victory speech on last Thursday Modi was candid in saying “This is not my strength. This is BJP’s strength. This is the Team BJP, this is Team Gujarat, which is serving you and I am just a small part of this team”  He then went on to say that Gujarat is leading the country “I am serving the country through six crore Gujaratis. We have to create such a Gujarat, which will fulfill the needs of other parts of the countries as well” he said. The Gujarat chief minister added that if the farmers of his state produce more food grains, it will feed the poor in the rest of the country, if a factory is built here, it will provide employment to the people from other parts. Thus swelling Gujarati pride.

The second hallmark is the shared vision, I, you and everyone are working hard for the welfare of all of us. You get this message when he modiwent on share the credit with the employees “I specially thank all five lakh government employees. I know you have to work even on holidays. Earlier you used to go home by five PM but now you don’t go back till 10 PM. By voting for me, you have proved that you are ready to work for the people” .

The shared vision, stoking the Gujarati pride by saying that they are currently the first among equals in the country would not have worked had he not delivered in terms of governance. Today Gujarat is heavily urbanized and about 68 of the 182  seats come from the urban areas of Gujarat. It’s little secret that these cities thrive on Modi’s brand of development that ensures good roads manufacturing units and most importantly more  jobs. Then we have the new neo middle class which comprises of about 54 Lakh people or say 9% of the state population. Neo middle class are the people who have just come out of the Below the poverty line and joined the a slightly decent income group like the lower middle class. All these 54 lakh people have come out of BPL in the last 5-7 years under Modi’s rule.The uninterrupted power supply across the state and endorsement of almost all the corporates speaks volumes about his administrative skills.

It’s not just stoking pride and development that ensured Modi’s victory, he played his cards very well when it came to election campaign, may it be mia Ahmad Patel becoming the CM remark or the issue with respect Sir Creek he  ensured that the opposition was always under pressure. Whatever be his personal convictions he has never touched the communal issues in this election.  His non-corrupt image was the final icing on the cake for the voters who voted for him.  Doing well in so many fields and spheres definitely deserves praise doesn’t it ? The lessons to be learnt are crystal clear, one feature never grants any politician victory in any election you have got to play with multiple factors and do well in almost all of them to emerge on the winning side.

After a hatrick in Gujarat it’s only natural that people are curious about Modi’s national aspirations, I think it would definitely be very very difficult. For all reasons, given the baggage of Godhra on his back it would be definitely very very difficult for Modi to find any acceptance among the minorities outside Gujarat.  The pseudo secular might make the things further complicated.  It would be also very difficult for the NDA to get new allies to form the government. Hence I doubt if BJP would ever want him as its prime ministerial candidate.  The current hesitation among the top brass of BJP is also due to the above reasons.

What if he is given the ticket and contest as the prime ministerial candiadate from the BJP, he would definitely find some base,  Modi comes across as a person who is very assertive and a person who takes a clear stand on many issues. This sort of leaders are fast becoming the darlings of the youth in India. That would definitely work in his favor. The hindutva credentials also will work to some extent. How far does this stand in front of traditional vote banks of the congress remains to be seen.

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One Comment

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  1. balkishansharma / Jan 16 2013 11:12 am

    Reblogged this on PACHORI.

    Like

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