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September 14, 2011 / subramanyam

Narendra Modi for PM ???


          With the recent verdict of the supreme court coming out as a breather for Narendra Modi , the speculation is on that he might be chosen as the BJP’s PM candidate for the 2014 Lok Sabha election. However ,will BJP project Modi? and if they do so will the other parties in NDA approve it ? even if they approve it , will that move help NDA?  these are some  of compelling questions that come to our mind, I shall, in my limited scope of knowledge try to answer these questions in the best way I can, in this article.

          “Narendra Modi” is a name that raises eyebrows throughout  the length and breadth of this nation , a section of the population loves him to an extent that they wouldn’t mind worshipping him , for another section  he is the hope of development for India , however there is a section of the population ( mind you this is quite a sizeable one as well) that hates Modi and wishes to avoid him like plague.

Can he be the future PM ?

          The moment BJP picks Modi , it is very very likely that all the parties which wish to play the secular card might unite and join ranks with congress with a sole purpose of keeping Modi out of office. As I mentioned previously , a section of the population , mostly people belonging to religious minorities have their own reservations against Modi .In a number of states such as U.P. , Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh ,Orissa , Tamil Nadu and the north east it’s the minorities who call shots when it comes to elections. As such in the history of Indian polity till date, the voting pattern from the Hindus (the religious Majority) was always divided while that of the minority communities was mostly united, hence a united minority vote is key to win any election in India.

          We all know the prowess of Congress Party in capturing the minority vote bank , should Modi be picked up by the BJP, the  Congress party need not even search for allies , they themselves will come to congress to prove their secular credentials , which will be like icing on the cake for the grand old party of India, if the voting patterns of today continue and Modi picked up for the top job by BJP , the grand old party will reduce BJP and NDA to the opposition benches for the consecutive third term.

          The most noticeable ally for BJP from NDA is “Janata dal United”, the poster boy of that party and Bihar’s best performing CM “Nitish Kumar” wanted Modi out of campaign during the recent Bihar polls. So that tells us the affinity NDA parties have for Modi. Shiv Sena and Akali Dal might support Modi’s candidature  but the support from other NDA parties remains doubtful.

          Not just these , even winning new allies is going to be a problem for BJP with Modi’s candidature .Given the current political calculations and the hunger of the political parties for the minority votes, BJP might not get any new parties to support it incase Modi is picked .

          Now, lets look at other side of the coin . Modi’s proven track record  on good governance plank has made him a darling to a majority of the Indian middle class households,Modi has earned the very same respect Manmohan singh earned during 1990’s with his economic reforms. The transformation of Gujarat into a model state and Modi as its chief architect is winning points and people for BJP and Modi.You do not find anyother CM in India who can parallel his achievements in the last one decade. Youth of this country who want jobs and good careers would always love to embrace a person who promises a good economic policy , in that case Modi has no parallels as Gujarat has been growing 11+% for  the last decade. Mitsubishi’s, TATA’s, General Motors ,the Ambanis,Mahindra’s are all queuing up  to put their industries in Gujarat. Do Modi’s policies need bigger approval?

         Here is what Congressional Research Service Report ,the unbiased report submitted to US Congress for the  planning purposes of law makers has to say about Modi.

Perhaps India’s best example of effective governance and impressive development is found in Gujarat (pop. 60 million), where controversial Chief Minister Narendra Modi has streamlined economic processes, removing red tape and curtailing corruption in ways that have made the state a key driver of national economic growth. Seeking to overcome the taint of his alleged complicity in deadly 2002 anti-Muslim riots, Modi has overseen heavy investment in modern roads and power infrastructure, and annual growth of more than 11% in recent years. The state has attracted major international investors such as General Motors and Mitsubishi and, with only 5% of the country’s population, Gujarat now accounts for more than one-fifth of India’s exports.

source http://im.rediff.com/news/2011/sep/14crs-report.pdf

          Also, we cannot rule out the possibility of majority community (Religious majority Hindus) grouping and voting for Modi, if this happens Modi and BJP might even fancy winning 2014 single-handedly. This is a possibility even if its chances are  remote .

          5% of India’s people live in Gujarat and more than 1/5th of India’s exports come from that state ,the man behind the mission here is Modi. This is the point that makes me support Modi over any other candidate for the top job of this nation.

          They say a week’s time is eternity in politics, considering that we still have 3 years to go to polls.If in the next 3 years BJP can project positive sides of Modi, and if they can project his development agenda and his track record of being non-corrupt, probably they can have him and still win 2014 polls. Chances of Modi as a PM or even the PM candidate are bleak today, but things might change anyway in the next 3 years. Who knows the lady luck might embrace any one in 2014.

 Let’s see how the future unfolds itself.

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